The AFC East’s top two teams will face off on Monday Night Football to wrap up the Week 13 NFL schedule. The Buffalo Bills will host the division-leading New England Patriots at Highmark Stadium. The visitors have won six consecutive contests, while the hosts have dropped two of their last four games. Whether New England can pull away from the rest of the pack for a No. 1 seed in the NFL playoff picture remains to be seen.
Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Buffalo is favored by 2.5 points in the latest Bills vs. Patriots odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the Over-Under is 41. Before you lock in any Patriots vs. Bills picks, be sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,100 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 13 of the 2021 season on an incredible 131-94 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick ’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has simulated Patriots vs. Bills 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NFL picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Patriots vs. Bills:
- Bills vs. Patriots spread: Bills -2.5
- Bills vs. Patriots over-under: 41 points
- Bils vs. Patriots money line: Bills -145, Patriots +125
- NE: Patriots have covered the spread in their last five games
- BUF: Bills have are 10-2 straight-up in their last 12 home games
Featured Game | Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
Why the Patriots can cover
The Patriots are 8-4 overall against the spread, and only the Green Bay Packers have covered more. They’ve been highly successful on the road and boast a 4-1 record against the number away from Gillette Stadium.
The Patriots’ offense averages 28 points per game, and only six teams can beat that mark. New England excels at forcing stops and making life easy on its offense. The Patriots lead the NFL with a league-high 19 interceptions and rank second in total takeaways with 25. Josh Allen has thrown a pair of picks in three of his last four games, and the Bills lost two of those contests. If Buffalo’s signal-caller is careless again, the Bills could suffer a second straight home loss.
Why the Bills can cover
The Bills are 3-2 straight up at home and all of their wins at Highmark Stadium have been by double-digits. The favorites have gone 15-5 straight-up in their last 20 games, and a straight-up win will also likely get the job done against the spread with such a tight number.
This season, the Bills have been just as good as the Patriots on defense. They’ve given up a league-low 182 points, and only the Patriots have allowed fewer points per game. Buffalo’s top-ranked pass defense has allowed just 1,964 yards through the air through 11 games, while no other team has allowed fewer than 2,000. Then there’s the Bills’ offense, which has generated 29.6 points per game. Buffalo’s top-10 passing attack has amassed 25 touchdowns through the air. Only two teams have tallied more passing touchdowns, so even New England’s talented secondary could struggle against Allen and his receiving corps.
How to make Bills vs. Patriots picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 39 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the model’s Bills vs. Patriots picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Patriots vs. Bills on Monday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Patriots vs. Bills spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up almost $7,100 on its NFL picks, and find out.